Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
